10 “sure things” for 2014: Not so much
Larry Swedroe, The BAM Alliance, Director of Research
At the beginning of each year, I compile a list of predictions that financial gurus and industry experts tell us are a “sure thing.” And each year, I track how many of these predictions actually come true. So, it’s now time for our second quarterly review of 10 financial predictions that pundits forecast as certain to occur in 2014.
Keep in mind that if these 10 predictions were really sure things, all — or at least most — of them should have happened. But as the research indicates, past isn’t prologue, and no one is a good forecaster when it comes to performance. As is our practice, we give a score of +1 for a forecast that came true, a -1 for a prediction that turned out to be wrong, and a 0 for one that’s basically a toss-up. Read more